> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.cortex.aic.io/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.cortex.aic.io/workflow-guides/analyse/probability-editions.md).

# Probability Editions

**Open this area:** In the CORTEX menu, select **Intelligence cycle → Analyse**.

**Who uses this:** Analyst, Reviewer\
**Open in CORTEX:** `/analyse`\
**In-app guide:** `/help?topic=probability-editions`

Use PHIA 2025 for a new judgement, identify historical scales, and keep analytical confidence separate.

**Expected result:** The saved judgement retains its exact probability edition, wording, and independent confidence.

## Before you start

* Have current Analyse and Memory access and write authority to create or amend an assessment.
* Check the workspace's adopted profile and its approved probability edition, if assigned.

## What to do

{% stepper %}
{% step %}

## Choose the edition

In each analytical judgement, select **Probability edition**.

New judgements start at PHIA 2025. A saved historical judgement opens in its retained edition; changing the edition is an explicit reassessment.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

## Assess the proposition

Choose a probability term, then choose **Analytical confidence** independently.

PHIA 2025 uses Likely or Probable; Remote chance excludes zero and Almost certain excludes certainty. Approximate bands are not continuous numeric bins.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

## Explain the uncertainty

Record the rationale, evidence considered, and remaining uncertainty.

High probability can have low confidence. Source grades and classification do not determine either value.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

## Retain and review

Save the draft with a change reason, inspect the edition on detail, then follow independent peer review.

Earlier revisions keep their hashes and wording. A previous local-scale value needs deliberate reassessment before a new review.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

## Prepare a product

Use the retained analysis revision in Product.

New server-bound assessment definitions accompany the authored report in JSON, PDF, and DOCX. Inspect the selected revision and all independent dimensions before release; an export is not release authority.
{% endstep %}
{% endstepper %}

## Check the result

* Does the edition match the adopted profile?
* Have I separately explained confidence?
* Is a historical judgement being deliberately reassessed, rather than relabelled?

## If you get stuck

<details>

<summary>Why is the old wording still shown?</summary>

The record was saved against an earlier edition, or before an edition field existed. Missing historical fields mean the previous JDP-derived catalogue, never an automatic PHIA2025 conversion.

</details>

<details>

<summary>Why is my chosen edition refused?</summary>

The adopted profile approves another edition. Select the approved edition, or arrange a reviewed replacement profile for new work. Existing workspace adoption is fixed.

</details>

<details>

<summary>Does Almost certain mean 100 percent?</summary>

No. The PHIA2025 upper endpoint is below 100 percent; the displayed range and uncertainty remain part of the assessment.

</details>

## Responsibility and limits

* Analysts choose and substantiate judgements. The application neither calculates probabilities nor certifies an assessment.
* Existing released packages are retained byte-for-byte; new wording appears only in new work or explicit revisions.

## Reference and scope

PHIA, *Explaining Uncertainty in UK Intelligence Assessment*, 24 March 2025. JDP 2-00 fourth-edition wording remains historical; the application does not convert earlier local scales.

## Related workflows

* [Develop and independently review an assessment](broken://pages/79db57a6c6245feef3fb58e4fe6d4a507b2a74a0)
* [Approve catalogues and find controlled terminology](file:///7397340/assurance/controlled-terminology.md)
* [Author an intelligence Product and inspect its exports](file:///7397340/product/products.md)
* [Review a model-assisted first draft from CSV](file:///7397340/product/ai-drafts.md)