> For the complete documentation index, see [llms.txt](https://docs.cortex.aic.io/llms.txt). Markdown versions of documentation pages are available by appending `.md` to page URLs; this page is available as [Markdown](https://docs.cortex.aic.io/workflow-guides/analyse/futures.md).

# Futures

**Open this area:** In the CORTEX menu, select **Intelligence cycle → Analyse**.

Use bounded GOV.UK Futures Toolkit patterns to retain acquired signals, drivers, alternatives, human stress tests and cycle-free pathways.

**Who uses this:** Analyst, Reviewer, Author\
**Open in CORTEX:** `/analyse`\
**In-app guide:** `/help?topic=futures`

**Expected result:** An exact Analysis revision has a traceable futures exercise whose assumptions, uncertainty and human ownership remain visible.

## Before you start

* Open the exact authorised Analysis with Analysis write permission and identify the decision question and real time horizon.
* Acquire candidate signals into governed Evidence; the page shows whether an exact quotation is selected for each signal. A feed or news lead alone remains unassessed.
* Identify existing F05 sessions and Analysis indicators you may need to link.

## What to do

{% stepper %}
{% step %}

## Choose a bounded method

The guided steps show the current Analysis, write authority and Evidence prerequisites before entry.

Select one of the twelve displayed Futures Toolkit methods, explain why it fits and read its limitation.

Required sections and sections with retained content appear automatically; select Show additional method records to edit other optional sections.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

## Acquire and interpret signals

Pin one exact Evidence quotation per signal.

Keep source date and observation date separate from interpretation and uncertainty.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

## Build alternatives

Record method findings, PESTLE drivers, all three Horizons or at least two scenarios as applicable.

Keep assumptions explicit; scenarios never receive probabilities.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

## Stress-test with people

Link retained F05 participation where relevant.

Name an eligible human owner and record an outcome, reason and failure conditions for every scenario; CORTEX never chooses the option.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

## Trace a pathway

For Roadmapping or Backcasting, link existing authorised indicators and name step dependencies.

Resolve missing/self references; the service rejects cycles.
{% endstep %}

{% step %}

## Retain and prepare output

Required controls are marked and missing inputs appear as you type.

Red steps need attention, green steps are ready and grey steps are optional; Back keeps entered values.

A partial futures draft cannot be retained.

Review limits and a revision reason, then save against the exact Analysis hash. The service rechecks access, Evidence and links.

Earlier revisions remain retained; adopt the validated snapshot only through the normal Product review, export and release workflow.
{% endstep %}
{% endstepper %}

## Check the result

* Was every signal deliberately acquired as Evidence?
* Are interpretation and source observation visibly separate?
* Are alternatives free from invented probabilities?
* Does every stress result name a human owner and cover every scenario?
* Are pathway dependencies cycle-free and indicators from this Analysis?

## If you get stuck

<details>

<summary>Why is a news item not accepted as a signal?</summary>

First acquire an authorised exact quotation into Evidence. Record the source date separately and explain your interpretation and uncertainty.

</details>

<details>

<summary>How do I connect records?</summary>

Use the labelled checkboxes beside the finding, driver, horizon, scenario or pathway step. CORTEX retains the stable key and updates the form without requiring you to copy it.

</details>

<details>

<summary>What should I do after a version conflict?</summary>

Your draft remains visible. Compare or copy what you need, then choose Reload retained version to discard the draft and fetch the current record.

</details>

<details>

<summary>Why does my selected method fail validation?</summary>

Review the red step and its missing-input list. Each method requires substantive retained records: findings, mapped drivers, all three Horizons, alternatives, stress tests or pathway direction as described on the page. Each signal also needs an exact Evidence quotation. Correct any server-reported current-access or link failure before retrying.

</details>

<details>

<summary>Why was a roadmap rejected?</summary>

Every dependency must name another retained step and the graph must be acyclic. Remove the loop or split the exercise; a circular plan cannot be retained as ordered dependency evidence.

</details>

## Responsibility and limits

* The exercise does not create tasking, targeting, weapon action, influence execution, funding or authority.
* Named owners remain responsible for stress-test judgements; automation does not select an option.
* Product output retains exact source hashes and remains subject to current access and release controls.

**Reference and scope:** UK Government Office for Science Futures Toolkit (2024) method patterns. CORTEX records structured human analysis; it does not calculate probability, select policy or authorise operational action.

## Related workflows

* [Develop and independently review an assessment](broken://pages/79db57a6c6245feef3fb58e4fe6d4a507b2a74a0)
* [Retain analytical techniques, interpretations and challenge](broken://pages/614768db0479443acb2254a5d08e147d50af4233)
* [Observe judgement indicators and review personal alerts](broken://pages/261953a39e3e0a2395c12b0b23b4d03f381a47f8)
* [Find evidence and select exact retained passages](broken://pages/e6eab51e146c4db1e002b720557a5faea932e41c)
* [Author an intelligence Product and inspect its exports](file:///7397340/product/products.md)